The Greatness of Tom Izzo

It wasn’t long after Michigan State’s disappointing loss to upstart Texas Tech that sportswriters again began to question just how good of a coach is Tom Izzo.  The very next day Adam Zagoria from Forbes – who is inextricably both a basketball insider and tennis writer – wrote an article showing how Tom Izzo didn’t stack up against the all-time greatest coaches.  His ratio of championships to Final Four appearances lagged behind the lofty number of John Wooden, Coach K, Dean Smith, Roy Williams, even Villanova coach Jay Wright.

Tom Izzo

While it’s true that Coach Izzo only has one championship on his resume, a look at some other numbers show just how extraordinary the career of Mr. March has been.

There is a reason that teams hang Final Four banners in their arenas.  Getting to the last weekend of the NCAA tournament is incredibly difficult.  There are 347 Division 1 men’s basketball programs, 92 of which have been to a Final Four in their program’s history.  Only six of those programs have more Final Four appearances than Michigan State under Tom Izzo.  Izzo has the same number of Final Fours as Indiana.  He’s coached in more Final Fours than perennial powerhouses Michigan and Syracuse.  He  has twice as many appearances as Arizona and five more than either Marquette or Texas.  Izzo has more appearances in the Final Four than every single mid-major conference.

In fact, Izzo’s true greatness is that he has been to so many Final Fours that his team should never have reached in the first place.  A 2015 article from FiveThirtyEight argued that Izzo was the greatest coach in NCAA tournament history – and that it wasn’t even close.  Their model showed that teams under Izzo had won 14.6 more games than you would expect based on their seeding.  His numbers were better than Pitino, Calipari, and Calhoun.  Better in fact than Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, and Dean Smith – by a wide margin.  Their numbers showed that his numbers were seven standard deviations above the expected number of wins.  That’s not just an outlier but an extraordinary feat of coaching.

Every Spartan fan hopes that Tom Izzo will once again cut down the nets in April but it’s hard to argue that Coach Izzo hasn’t lived up the name Mr. March.